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may.crypto {🦅}
@xmayeth
trading addict | prediction markets | founder @xspreadmap
参加 December 2021
816 フォロー中    39.3K ファン
i broke down sports arbitrage. i make $200-500 a day doing this. lots of platforms out there: prediction markets and sportsbooks. point1: each one has hundreds of matches. point2: every match has several outcomes. point3: the odds aren't synced. the basic principle: first figure out how odds work. say you put $100 on an outcome at 1.95 odds. you get $195 back. everyone sees that part. but there's a probability hidden in it - the chance the platform gives that outcome. the formula: chance = 1/odds so at 1.95 odds the sportsbook gives that outcome 1/1.95 = ~51% on prediction markets you don't need this math. the share price already is the chance the market set. how do you find a sports arb? take the chances (from the formula above) for every outcome of the match and add them up. over 100%: no arb, that's the platform's margin under 100%: there's an arb, the gap is your profit example: bertimon to win on duel at 3.30 -> 1/3.30 = 30% kshitij to win on Polymarket at 61c, 62% with fees 30% + 62% = 92% that's under 100% so you make 8% ROI in either outcome. sports markets have a lot of liquidity. right now it's the truest edge in arb, and anyone can do it. i built a scanner that does all the math for you. try it, 3 days free
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