Macauley(@yeluacaM):Sobering: “It’s not mechanically possible for AI to scale returns as priced in, over the priced-in timeline. We’re not asserting this as mere opinion – it’s inescapable because at the end of the cycle, available (physical) resources are depleted, no matter how many dollars are printed or borrowed. Further spending simply creates inflation, keeps rates up, and squeezes real income. This explains the memory and broader commodity price moves. Every dollar of AI spending in this zero-sum situation crowds out a dollar of potential demand one-for-one. So AI will accelerate the recession before it can generate revenue, because AI-related activity is smothering its own potential customers.”

2026.08.06 14:57

Sobering: “It’s not mechanically possible for AI to scale returns as priced in, over the priced-in timeline. We’re not asserting this as mere opinion – it’s inescapable because at the end of the cycle, available (physical) resources are depleted, no matter how many dollars are printed or borrowed. Further spending simply creates inflation, keeps rates up, and squeezes real income. This explains the memory and broader commodity price moves. Every dollar of AI spending in this zero-sum situation crowds out a dollar of potential demand one-for-one. So AI will accelerate the recession before it can generate revenue, because AI-related activity is smothering its own potential customers.”

Andy Constan@dampedspring

2026.08.06 12:38

Loved this post and expect it to get massive hate and nasty criticism as doomer and perma bear with a nice helping of ad hominem attacks. Whitney is fantastic and worth reading whatever your bias may be.