Gonna share my 2026 hedging thesis (long tweet warning) I call it: how to get paid even if crypto bleeds and tech beta starts vomiting into year end. Strictly my personal opinion. All info below are based on PUBLIC sources. Not financial advice, DYOR With crypto potentially facing another 20-40% drawdown into year-end, I’m increasingly convinced that select oil and tanker equities are one of the cleaner hedges right now. AND NO, this isn't another tweet about gambling long or short on crude. The play is shareholder yield: dividends, supplemental dividends, and buybacks, backed by strong free cash flow, manageable leverage, and real asset exposure. Sized right, the basket could return 20-30% cash this year. My thesis is not “which oil stock does 2x or 5x.” It’s defensive: these companies are generating exceptional cash in the current freight and energy setup. Many run with low single-digit net debt to EBITDA, and select names can deliver double-digit shareholder yield through 2026 if rates stay firm. That’s real cash flow while crypto chops, and honestly I’d rather have that than be all-in into tech growth names that offer zero yield buffer when risk assets correct. Buying now can still qualify you for upcoming quarterly dividends, but you need to own shares before the official ex-date. Make sure you check share buyback policies too, because that’s where the real combo comes from: dividends + buybacks + potential share price gains. ALSO AN IMPORTANT TAX NOTE everyone should know: > US taxpayers: want the lower qualified-dividend tax rate instead of getting cooked at ordinary income rates? Usually you need to hold shares unhedged for 61+ days within the 121-day window around the ex-date. > Non-US investors: normal US dividends can get hit with a 30% withholding tax slap. BUT many tanker names are foreign-domiciled, so the tax haircut can be much lighter. Don’t be lazy though, check domicile, broker, and local tax before celebrating. The near-term dividend window is worth watching, but I’m separating confirmed declarations from forecasted ex-dates. Confirmed/recent shareholder-return updates: > ASC announced on april 29 (literally yesterday) that it is doubling its payout ratio to two-thirds of adjusted earnings, effective Q1 2026. Q1 MR spot TCE was around 33.7k/day, and Q2-to-date was around 50k/day. Dividend amount/date still needs official declaration. > Var Energi (OSL:VAR/VARRY) has a confirmed 300M Q1 2026 distribution payable June 12, with another 300M guided for Q2. > Eni (E/ENI.MI) confirmed a 2026 dividend of €1.10/share and raised its buyback plan by about 90% to €2.8B. > TTE raised its first 2026 interim dividend by 5.9% to €0.90/share and doubled Q2 buybacks to $1.5B. Not a May/June capture name, but good shareholder-return ballast. For the tanker watchlist: > DHT has one of the cleanest payout formulas: 100% of ordinary net income as quarterly cash dividends. Q1 payout/date still needs declaration. > TRMD’s last official distribution was $0.70/share. Any May dates floating around are watchlist inputs until TORM officially declares. > FRO paid $1.03/share for Q4, and Q1 looks strong with VLCC days booked around 107.1k/day. But the next dividend is still pending. > INSW’s most recent payout was $2.15/share combined ($0.12 regular + $2.03 supplemental) for Q4 2025. Next payout depends on Q1 results. > HAFN (product/chemical tankers) raised its latest quarterly dividend to $0.1762/share and is seeking a new 10% buyback mandate at the 2026 AGM. Next payout pending. > STNG is more buyback + quality product tanker exposure than a huge dividend-capture name. > NAT has visible variable yield, but I’d treat it as higher risk. The basket has 4 buckets: Variable/formula-based tanker payouts: ASC, DHT, TRMD, HAFN, FRO, INSW, NAT (highest dividend torque in the basket, but also the most variable) Product tanker buyback discipline: STNG (still shipping exposure, but more buyback + quality operator than huge dividend capture) Big energy shareholder-return ballast: SU, TTE, E/ENI.MI, CNQ, REPYY/REP.MC, OSL:VAR/VARRY (less sexy, but more grown-up hedge: dividends, buybacks, scale, and balance sheet durability) Buyback/growth oil names: VIST, ATH. TO (not dividend names, but buybacks can still create shareholder yield without sending you a cash dividend) see the table below for the full visual overview with qualification/timing notes on every name (including higher-risk examples like PBR) IMPORTANT: this is not a free dividend glitch. Stocks often adjust down around the ex-date, sometimes more than the dividend itself. variable dividends can disappear if rates collapse. Buybacks only matter if management buys at sane prices. So, the setup I like: own cash-return machines while the market is still underpricing how long energy cash flow can stay strong. Why this hedge over the usual alternatives: > tech stocks: still risk-on beta, no yield buffer > bonds: help in recession, messy if inflation/oil risk stays sticky > cash: safe but real returns are unexciting > long dated puts: clean hedge, expensive theta bleed if timing is wrong The tanker angle is different because strong Q1/Q2 cash flow can come back as dividends, supplemental dividends and buybacks. (not fixed, but in the right rate environment, cash returns fast) Even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, the system doesn't reset overnight: > inventories still need to rebuild > refined products can stay tight > trade routes can stay inefficient > Q1 cash flow already happened > Q2 rates are the next thing to watch Crypto for asymmetric growth, oil-linked yield for cash flow ballast. I don't need every hedge to 5x, sometimes the boring trade just keeps paying you while crypto does whatever crypto does.