Does capital actually rotate back to Solana?
On volume it looks like it does. On fees it mostly doesn't.
Last week Solana did $21.2bn in DEX volume and Robinhood Chain did $10.6bn. Solana's share went from 57% to 67% in one week.
Solana gained $3.1bn of volume. Robinhood lost $2.9bn. Almost dollar for dollar.
Robinhood's drop was mostly Uniswap, down $2.7bn, which is cheap RWA and stablecoin flow. Solana's gain was mostly prop AMMs and Orca, trading SOL and stables. That's mainly bot and market-maker volume.
Fees tell the other half. Robinhood lost $30.5mm in the last 7 days. Solana gained $4.9mm.
The fees came from Pons. At 1% per trade, Pons fees halved from $39.2mm to $19.0mm. Pump and Stonk added $0.9bn of volume, nowhere near enough to replace that.
This shows that there was no big rotation to Solana. It was a decrease in trading activity entirely.