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Adam Livingston
@AdamBLiv
The Bitcoin Wizard | Author of The Great Harvest | @BitcoinForCorps | Analysis @Swan | Advisor @saturn_credit | MSTR + MTPLF + ASST HODLER |
가입 January 2025
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🚀ASST MOON MATH🚀 I wanted to stress test ASST for 5 years with Strive buying Bitcoin using ONLY SATA, then funding the SATA dividends by selling Bitcoin. Basically, a handicapped common equity model. Assumptions: 100 BTC bought per business day 13% SATA dividend Dividend paid by selling Bitcoin No common dilution No debt Valued at today’s CEBE NAV multiple Starting point: 15,009 BTC, $495.95M preferred outstanding This isolates what happens when ASST common is funded by a 13% preferred cost of capital. Year 5 results: $100k BTC: negative CEBE $150k BTC: $20.16 $200k BTC: $74.89 $300k BTC: $186.91 $500k BTC: $415.52 SATA is not free capital. It is a 13% senior claim attached to the balance sheet. So the common equity outcome becomes a race between: Bitcoin appreciation + BTC accumulation versus the preferred dividend drag. If BTC underperforms, the wrapper fee starts eating common alive. If BTC performs, existing fixed-dollar claims compress in BTC terms while the treasury keeps compounding. That is why the model gets ugly under $150k BTC, starts working around $200k, and gets completely feral at $300k+. The common shareholder should see a capital structure stress test. Bitcoin compounds, and each issued dollar claim stays fixed. That spread is the trade. And remember, this model is intentionally handicapped. It assumes: No ASST issuance, no debt, no alternate dividend funding, basically no other tools in the toolkit. It only assumes 126,000 BTC purchased gross over 5 years, funded through SATA. At $500k BTC by 2031, this model puts ASST around $415.52. That is nearly a 25x from today’s $16.79. Pretty crazy numbers, especially considering this version forces them to sell Bitcoin every day to pay the dividend. I think they accumulate more than 126k BTC gross over time, and I doubt dividends are funded entirely through BTC sales forever. But even in this brutally handicapped version, if Bitcoin hits $500k by 2031, the common equity starts looking absolutely deranged.
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