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Adam Livingston
@AdamBLiv
The Bitcoin Wizard | Author of The Great Harvest | @BitcoinForCorps | Analysis @Swan | Advisor @saturn_credit | MSTR + MTPLF + ASST HODLER |
가입 January 2025
265 팔로잉 중    81.9K
This is absolutely fascinating: every Bitcoin cycle has the same skeleton. The ratio of BTC to gold rips to a euphoric top. Gold then quietly outperforms BTC for roughly 14 months as the market exhales. The BTC/Gold ratio bottoms, and then Bitcoin makes a new all-time high in dollars. It has happened twice. It is happening a third time right now. The fingerprint is almost too clean: → 2017 ratio top → 2019 ratio trough: 416 days → 2021 ratio top → 2023 ratio trough: 440 days → 2024 ratio top → 2026 ratio trough: 433 days Same clock. Different decade. The ratio topped on December 17, 2024 at 40.12 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. It bottomed on February 23, 2026 at 12.36. A 69% drawdown in BTC priced in real money, even as the dollar price was busy making a fresh ATH at $124,725 in October. That is the tell. The dollar price topped ten months after the ratio topped. Gold was already winning. The fiat scoreboard was the last one to update. Now look at what historically happens after the ratio trough: → 2019 trough → BTC USD new ATH: 711 days → 2023 trough → BTC USD new ATH: 469 days → 2026 trough → BTC USD new ATH: ? Average: 590 days. We are 83 days in. Small sample size, but we are roughly 14% of the way through the recovery window. That puts the next BTC USD all-time high somewhere between April 2027 and December 2027. However, that is a diminishing trend as well. The percentage gain required to take out the prior ATH is collapsing every cycle. From the 2018 low, BTC needed +500% to print a new high. From the 2022 low, +328%. From the February 2026 low at $64,049, BTC needs +95%. The recovery math gets easier every cycle because Bitcoin's monetary base keeps getting harder. Three cycles. Identical anatomy. Diminishing climb. The ratio has spoken. The dollar will be the last to find out.
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