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Adam Livingston
@AdamBLiv
The Bitcoin Wizard | Vice President, Investments @Strive Christ. Family. Bitcoin. In that order.
가입 January 2025
298 팔로잉 중    88.8K 팬
Current ASST situation: ASST is now at an expanded 1.79x CEBE mNAV premium after this latest Bitcoin rally. Obviously, with added premium over NAV comes added risk, depending on investing time horizon, along with other factors. If you can't ride the volatility super dragon for enough time to make the machine work for you, this wouldn't be ideal. I think it's reasonable to assume Bitcoin could go back to $126,000 in 1 year by August of 2027. That'd be almost 2 months removed from all-time high. If the fundraising mechanisms were totally shut down and we move the static snapshot of the balance sheet forward as Bitcoin goes to that price, ASST would go to $40 per share with no additional Bitcoin or mNAV expansion. But we know they're buying lots of Bitcoin, lifting the NAV floor along the way. The breakeven mNAV for that date to outpace Bitcoin would be 1.53x. Do you think the mNAV will go down by more than 0.25x in a run to $126k Bitcoin? I don't. Do you think they'll probably add Bitcoin exposure along the way? I don't think paying the premium today is illogical, ESPECIALLY if you can handle the volatility over long time horizons. Just my opinion.
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