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Adam Livingston
@AdamBLiv
The Bitcoin Wizard | Vice President, Investments @Strive Christ. Family. Bitcoin. In that order.
가입 January 2025
298 팔로잉 중    88.8K 팬
🚀BITCOIN BULL RUN IMMINENT🚀 WE LIVE IN A SIMULATION. Bitcoin bear markets priced in GOLD have lasted: 406 days. 416 days. 440 days. Historical average: 421 days. So naturally the latest Bitcoin/gold bear market bottoms after... 433 DAYS. Then Bitcoin proceeds to rip +41% against gold. Apparently the monetary system has a RESPAWN TIMER. We spent 14 months watching everyone declare Bitcoin dead for the 900th time while the hardest-money ratio was quietly approaching the exact same historical expiration date like a frozen pizza in God’s microwave. And the funniest part? Bitcoin even made a LOWER LOW in dollars afterward... ...while making a HIGHER LOW against gold. Now get this. We are 6 months and 5 days passed the bottom now. Walk forward that length of time from each BTC/XAU bottom in history. Forward returns in USD: Six months forward +36.8% -9.1% +55.1% Median: +36.8% Two of the three periods were strongly positive, while 2019 ran directly into the COVID-era disruption shortly afterward. Twelve months forward The results become much more interesting: +144.5% +1.6% +87.2% Median: +87.2% And crucially: 3 out of 3 were positive 12 months later. If today's cycle merely matched those historical medians mechanically: 6-month median analogue $80,279 × 1.368 ≈ $109,800 BTC 12-month median analogue $80,279 × 1.872 ≈ $150,300 BTC Fiat chart: “OH GOD IT’S OVER.” Hard-money chart: “sir, your bear market subscription has expired.” At some point you have to consider the possibility that Bitcoin is not trading randomly. It is simply running a recurring program designed to transfer wealth from people who panic after 400 days to people autistic enough to count them.
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