I think the World Cup: Golden Boot Winner market is significantly mispriced The market puts 93% odds on Kylian Mbappe winning the Golden Boot. With 10 goals and 4 assists, he's now the top 1 contender. Meanwhile, the 2nd contender is Messi, with 8 goals and 4 assists, and the market prices his win at 7% Messi has to score 2 goals and 1 assist or a hat-trick to surpass Mbappe. And he needs to do this in a game against a team which has conceded just only 1 goal throughout this wc. It's a very tough task driven mostly by fans copium Most realistic outcome is that Mbappe keeps the Golden Boot. Imo, it's currently priced quite low considering the stats above A 7% return for a 90-min game is massive APY. True zero-risk doesn't exist in sports but at this +EV it’s the easiest play rn