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Quant Chad
@Autonomous_Chad
Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd.
가입 April 2024
806 팔로잉 중    16K 팬
AirBnB just started offering weather Prediction Markets to it's users. Users can hedge bad weather at their destination by betting on rain levels. this is a trillion dollar usecase. here is how it works: - users choose to pay a small "insurance fee" (stake) when booking - payout is determined automatically based on the odds of rain - If it rains, payout is automatically credited to their account No claim, No verification, 100% automated. Essentially, this is a prediction market bet disguised as insurance. This is called a "Parametric insurance". And it's what will take prediction markets from the $600B gambling industry to the $8T insurance industry. Right now AirBnB is settling the bet through Chubb, a legacy insurance company, but they explicitly do NOT disclose their oracle anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if they were already using @Kalshi behind the scenes. It would be incredibly easy for them to use Kalshi to : - receive accurate weather odds - handle market resolution - even settle payouts All the insurer would do is charge a premium over the odds and collect the difference. If this usecase takes on, @Kalshi & @Polymarket could become the backbone of a trillion dollars industry.
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