CEO & Principal Analyst @creativestrat. Full-stack tech analysis from silicon to markets. Advisor to tech leaders. Technologist at heart. Keeper of Bees.
On the potential of an NVIDIA HBM downspec (option)
Our model suggests that a broad HBM downspec across NVIDIA’s Rubin portfolio could support roughly 30% to 50% more GPU shipments from the same available pool of HBM bits, assuming CoWoS and compute-die supply keep pace.
If those GPUs are deployed, power becomes the next question. A 30% to 50% uplift on roughly 7 million Rubin units across 2027–2028 would add 2.1–3.5 million GPUs. At 2kW per accelerator, that implies roughly 4–7GW of incremental ex-China chip-level power demand across the two years, or about 2–3.5GW annually if deployment is evenly split.
Current assumption right now in accelerator forecast, is we need to energize (global ex-China) 26 GW in 2027 and 32-35GW in 2028.