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CV Research
@CVResearch_
Deep dives on the stocks for the long run. Full thesis and thoughts on substack. By @CKCapitalxx + @VantixResearch
가입 June 2026
43 팔로잉 중    3.8K 팬
$MOD has customers waiting in line that it physically cannot sell to. Two hyperscalers are piloting its chillers right now, and existing customers cannot get units because the capacity is spoken for through 2029. That is the demand picture behind the stock. One agreement alone, worth more than $4 billion with a $165 million prepayment, reserves roughly half of Modine’s chiller output for three years. The CEO works directly with five hyperscalers and says it plainly, if they had the capacity today they would be shipping well above what they ship. The constraint is the building, not the buyers. The leaked database from August explains who is in that line. It named $GOOGL behind the $4 billion order, 3,512 chillers at 3 megawatts each, roughly 10.5 gigawatts of cooling in a supply chain that can build 12 to 13 gigawatts of new capacity per year. It showed $AMZN buying giant custom air handlers in a pipeline modeled three times larger than the chiller deal. Modine confirms none of it, but five separate public statements line up with the files, from the investor slides dating each hyperscaler relationship to the CEO’s own 40, 80, 100 probability language matching the database exactly. Run the pipeline through those odds and fiscal 2027 data center revenue lands near $2.3 billion, above the top of guidance. All of that sits on a company trading at 12 to 13 times EBITDA while $VRT trades at 23. Full breakdown below, including whether the chiller survives the warm water era, the factory bottleneck, and the honest bear case.
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