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CV Research
@CVResearch_
Deep dives on the stocks for the long run. Full thesis and thoughts on substack. By @CKCapitalxx + @VantixResearch
가입 June 2026
43 팔로잉 중    3.9K 팬
$INIO Update, Part Two is live. The Factory Filled Up. The Float Did Not. On October 27, $INIO reported the best quarter in its history. Revenue up 57%, data center customers ordering $1.8 billion of engines in three months, EBITDA up 70%, the full-year guide raised, and backlog doubled in a year to $8 billion. Including services, $10.9 billion now sits in signed paper, roughly two years of revenue. Every test we set in Part One passed. The stock still trades below where Part One published. Nothing went wrong with the business. Something is about to happen to the float, and that is what Part Two is about. On November 30, the lock-up on 646.5 million sponsor shares expires, 86% of the company, against roughly 103.5 million shares trading today. We walk through the one precedent this year for a sponsor-owned power equipment IPO crossing its lock-up, and why the first print AFTER the expiry is the one that re-rates the stock. Also inside, the rule nobody noticed, INNIO takes no neocloud orders and prioritizes buyers holding 15-year hyperscaler offtakes. Committed capacity hit roughly 19 gigawatts, yet by our estimate only about a fifth of 2029 to 2031 is spoken for, which is where the next price reset lives. We checked the Waukesha ramp through the city's planning files and the careers page, it is real and running early. And at current prices, our model says the market is paying for a factory that stops growing next year. Target moves from $27 to $28. The full model, the float playbook, and what we got wrong in Part One, all inside.
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