Threadguy explains why he bet $20,000 on no Fed rate hike in September “Warsh is hawkish or pretending to be hawkish, Trump is begging for cuts, and Bessent is in complete panic over yields being too expensive." "My understanding is that they’re financing government debt through short-term bonds so they can eventually roll it into longer-term bonds and lock in a cheaper rate. Warsh hiking would throw that whole plan into turmoil.” “Bessent and Warsh are boys, and there’s this huge oil supply shock making inflation worse. Bessent said, ‘Traditionally, you don’t raise rates into a supply shock,’ and that he and Warsh are on the same page on bonds." "If Warsh comes out and hikes, it's probably the right move, but the US is in panic. If Warsh doesn't come out and hike, he loses all credibility on his ability to be an independent thinker." "If I were Fed chair and knew that hiking would completely destroy the Treasury’s plan, would I do it? Probably not.”