The US Treasury increasing LT debt buybacks is driving an intra-day 8bps decline in 30yr ylds, +0.4% S&P but also a 0.8% decline in the US dollar which puts upward pressure on inflation. This follows yen intervention earlier this month to alleviate upward pressure on US ylds. There is an adage that the bond market will stop panicking when the government starts panicking. So the bulls will be heartened by today’s reaction given credit is the life blood of the economy. Having said that, what bothers me is none of this solves the underlying upward pressure on rising treasury ylds of 1) 6% US deficits (and high deficits around the globe) despite a strong economy, 2) high US government debt of $40T vs $33T in GDP , 3) increasing hyperscaler debt issuance due to a near doubling in capex this year to nearly $900B & likely over 30% next year to $1.2 trillion taking away some of the demand for treasuries. The reaction tomorrow to the reaction today will be an important tell. Does the rally continue or was today a temporary reprieve? As I posted on Sunday, there is normally a 10% peak to trough decline in the S&P between 7/31-11/9 since 1990 at some point during mid-term election years. I worry that the odds are increasing of seeing a repeat.