Waller pinned his December rate hike view on October CPI above or below 0.3, despite the fact that oil has dropped 22% in a straight line since that data was collected and energy is by far the number one driver of inflation. Absolute silliness. Hard to identify what framework he's using at this point. I don’t want to overreact because he is turning max hawkish right after a massive drop in oil prices and that seems objectively silly. He said today’s CPI will influence his decision, which is odd, because that figure does not include U.S. voters’ rejection of the war last week and Trump’s apparent climbdown. So this is a strange week for him to turn max hawkish-–he was the leader of the doves less than a year ago.