Remove Geopolitical Risk, Deflate Inflation Fear Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says oil flows from the Persian Gulf and alternative export routes have surpassed prewar levels, excluding Iranian barrels. That is the first step. The next is a Trump deal that eliminates Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon and removes the geopolitical risk premium. Relief at the gasoline pump and in diesel prices, would be significant. My bet: Trump gets a deal, oil falls, and bond yields drop. Markets are not positioned for that reversal. Investors and the Keynesians at the Fed are treating the oil shock as permanent rather than a disruption whose costs can unwind. The overlooked factor is delivery. Brent and West Texas Intermediate do not capture the full expense of getting crude to refineries. Tanker costs from the Persian Gulf to Asia have exceeded $37 a barrel. Shipping American crude to Asia has cost $30–35. Insurance adds another burden. Restored flows are necessary but insufficient. Barrels are moving through an expensive network of detours, transfers, and constrained shipping capacity. An enforceable deal that ends Iran’s nuclear threat and restores normal passage through Hormuz would attack both the underlying danger and its economic cost. Voyages would shorten. Tankers would return to normal service. Freight and insurance costs would fall. Crude would lose its supply-disruption premium. Consumers would benefit twice: cheaper oil and cheaper delivery. Falling gasoline prices would reverse households’ most visible inflation signal. Cheaper diesel would ease costs throughout trucking, agriculture, construction, and distribution. The energy-driven inflation spiral anchoring the Fed’s fears would evaporate as its catalyst ran backward. Bond yields would fall before official inflation figures caught up, weakening the case for restrictive policy. Restore flows. Eliminate the nuclear threat. Remove the risk premium. Trump gets a deal. Oil and rates drop. Markets are looking the wrong way. And the world is safer. Yes a peace dividend.