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Matt Dratch
@DratchCap
Macro Equity PM | Dartmouth Fball ’08 “Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid.” Views expressed are solely my own and not on behalf of my employer.
가입 December 2010
271 팔로잉 중    6.7K
On this one, I don’t agree. This feels a bit like price => narrative, and the claims aren’t supported just stated. 1) Define “memory losing steam.” The stocks stopped going vertical? Good. That’s partly technical and partly the industry deliberately trading spot upside for contracted volume, floors and longer-duration FCF, i.e. the seeds of higher P/E And if LTAs are meaningless, you’re asking us to believe an oligopoly that knows the issue better than anyone given burned in 2022, knowingly gave up upside for no downside protection. Just a win-win for the customer. That strains credulity. 2) What exactly is “not coming up roses”? Cloud growth remains strong, lab ARR remains strong, and Anthropic exited the month in the low $80s after adding nearly $20bn. I suspect the big two collectively hit $350BN ARR at year end based on july momentum rolled fwd / compute coming online. What is the contrary datapoint for the labs? 3) Financing is the oddest claim. September hike pricing just moved materially lower (we printed neg CPI and neg NFP in succession for those not paying mind…), wage growth is trending consistently lower, and a hyperscaler just printed $25bn five times covered. The “Big unwind” kinda already happened? It could of course continue as a tape call but the best potential driver wasn’t mentioned: equity supply.
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at the end of last year I had postulated that H1 would be a bubble and H2 would be the beginning of the end. my conviction in this continues to grow: - memory (which us finally dominated by DC) is losing steam - similar to previous cycles the “good guy” driver no longer powering the train is bad - only cloud (renting GPUs to labs) is “actually good” at hypers. that puts crazy onus on 2 co’s that aren’t all coming up roses anymore - now that financing relies on debt, rates glidepathing up is a big problem this will take a different form that before (send it all down!) given that pods must always be long some stocks. i think this is just “big unwind” but i am not sure how the market plays it now vs. ‘22 other than increased vol
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