Evan A. Feigenbaum(@EvanFeigenbaum):Hard disagree with this piece. The more likely outcome, at least in Asia, is fragmentation not unipolarity one way or the other. Putting China to the side, Asia includes sizable, capable, self-interested powers that are not going to simply accept Chinese "hegemony" (whatever that means). If we think in terms of function, not form, it is more likely that we will see shifting coalitions, portfolio politics, and diversity rather than unipolarity or Cold War like bipolarity. I've written a lot on this, including here in 2020 for example:

2026.05.15 19:57

Hard disagree with this piece. The more likely outcome, at least in Asia, is fragmentation not unipolarity one way or the other. Putting China to the side, Asia includes sizable, capable, self-interested powers that are not going to simply accept Chinese "hegemony" (whatever that means). If we think in terms of function, not form, it is more likely that we will see shifting coalitions, portfolio politics, and diversity rather than unipolarity or Cold War like bipolarity. I've written a lot on this, including here in 2020 for example: