$PENG earnings in 20 minutes 🐧🐧🐧
First thing what I'm watching: whether that $498M inventory investment starts turning into operating cash flow.
Then FY2027 guidance. Management’s preliminary 30% revenue growth outlook implied roughly $2.18B, or $545M per quarter only 7% above the $508M Q4 revenue implied by their previous FY2026 guide.
That’s why the Q1 outlook matters. A strong start could suggest their initial FY2027 view was conservative.
After the latest $DELL and $HPE results, I’m leaning toward a beat and raise. Enterprise and sovereign AI demand looks strong; now I want to see Penguin capture it through new bookings, repeat business, and profitable growth.
Revenue is one part of the story. Margins and cash conversion are what I’ll be checking closely tonight.
What are you expecting?
I wanted to share a quick update from the recent Penguin Solutions ($PENG) earnings call and show you how it’s going to impact their revenue moving forward.
I dove deeper into their financial statements, and on top of what I've previously written, I’ve noted a few key things.
On one hand, we are looking at massive acceleration; on the other, there’s a classic stock market trap that you need to watch out for.
What’s going on? Let me break it down.
As I’ve mentioned multiple times, $PENG has been undergoing a major transformation during fiscal year 2026 (which ends in August). They’ve been phasing out their old, low-margin legacy businesses and transitioning to the AI factory model that I’ve outlined in my previous articles.
Results for the first two quarters of this fiscal year were flat, even boring (hovering around $343M).
The market completely failed to see what was coming next.
However, we as FinX investors didn't sleep on this opportunity, we saw the market shifting, and the latest earnings report just proved us right. In the newly reported Q3, revenue absolutely exploded to $478.7M.
That is a massive spike of nearly 50% year-over-year.
The stock price has traveled an incredible path between my very first mention and today. Back in early April, when I first brought up this company - the shares were trading around $18.
At the time, I highlighted them as one of 5 companies ((the others being $RMBS, $NLST, $SANM, and $CRSR - all of which have booked substantial gains), that could serve as a compelling alternative to traditional memory manufacturers.
To be completely honest with you, I didn't see the full potential of this stock right away either.
In mid-April, I returned to that list and began a deeper analysis of those companies . I ended up buying my own block of shares in late April at just under $30.
Since then, I’ve written a series of posts and articles, and I am incredibly happy that this research helped many of you profit from this investment as well.
Going back to the earnings - what's driving this sudden surge?
The AI market is evolving.
The first phase of the boom was all about buying the raw processors.
Now, as these AI systems start doing real heavy lifting in production, the main bottleneck shifts to memory bandwidth and overall infrastructure - which happens to be Penguin's exact specialty.
Their AI segment grew by 104% and now generates 3/4 of total sales.
The math for the end of the year (Q4) is straightforward: since management raised their full-year growth guidance to 22%, they need to deliver a record-breaking ~$508M this quarter.
And this brings us to the most interesting part - their vision for fiscal year 2027 (which kicks off in September).
Management put an aggressive forecast on the table: next year, they aim to grow by another 30%, targeting nearly $2.18 billion in revenue.
They plan to achieve this by heavily anchoring themselves in the Enterprise sector and what's called "Sovereign AI" (AI systems commissioned by national governments).
By 2027, the old low-margin legacy businesses will be entirely gone. The vision is crystal clear: they are becoming a highly specialized player capturing the "second wave" of AI infrastructure.
So, where is the catch?
The devil is in the details of their share structure. Management acknowledged that their diluted share count will increase from 56 million to 62 million.
This is a capital dilution of over 10% driven by their convertible notes. Because the stock price surged so sharply, it triggered an accounting conversion mechanism that expanded the reported share base.
Despite this, management is still promising that earnings per share (EPS) will grow by 30%.
Let’s look at that mathematically on a cold, hard basis: for EPS to grow by 30% on a 10%+ larger share pool, the company's total net income has to skyrocket by over 40%!
That is a monumental task.
PENG can no longer just rely on "selling a lot of stuff" - they must drastically improve operational efficiency and scale their high-margin software and services, rather than just shifting hardware.
Additionally, they are expecting slight pressure on gross margins in Q4 due to rising component costs driven by higher memory prices.
On the positive side, I really like management's disciplined, conservative market outlook.
Keep in mind that securing just one additional major contract from a hyperscaler would trigger massive, unexpected upside here.
At the same time, as you can see, the period of maximum revenue hyper-growth is likely behind us.
The company will continue to grow steadily, but that explosive, vertical leap that I am always hunting for has already played out.
Full disclosure - I sold 1/3 of my position yesterday, locking in a nearly 200% gain.
If the stock continues to climb, I will scale out of the rest, but I am also perfectly comfortable waiting another quarter to watch how things unfold.
I also sold because I see extreme undervaluation in several other stocks right now, and I want to free up this capital to use as ammunition for new opportunities.
Penguin Solutions is turning into a highly ambitious but risky player.
Revenue is growing like wildfire and the demand for their tech is undeniably real, but the operational execution bar for 2027 has been set incredibly high.
If they don't deliver on margins, the macro AI tailwinds alone won't save them from a Wall Street correction.
This will be a fascinating maturity test to watch.
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