Are pistachio prices up because of Dubai chocolate? Partly. But the bigger story is supply. The demand side: after pistachio filled Dubai chocolate went viral, pistachio kernel prices rose from $7.65 to $10.30 per pound in a year, about 35% higher. The supply side: pistachio trees have strong on and off years. After a big harvest, trees produce noticeably less the following year. The US had a record crop in 2025, so 2026 is an off year. Iran, the other major producer, is also expecting a smaller crop. The result: in March, in shell pistachio prices reached about $4.57 per pound, the highest in eight years. In July, analysts at RaboResearch warned the 2026 US crop could come in 36% below earlier forecasts. Fun fact: there are no pistachio futures in the US or China. Prices are set mainly through trade between buyers and sellers. So behind every Dubai chocolate bar, there's a tree that needs a rest Sources: Financial Times (via multiple outlets), Nutlink, GV Wire, RaboResearch 
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