Research|META: Muse Wonder Returns Meta to the Frontier as Compute Tightens Personal agents expand Meta’s opportunity as training and inference demand put more pressure on compute capacity On October 12, Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL) released Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full, the models previously referred to in reports as Watermelon. These are Meta’s first frontier models since Llama 4, arriving 14 months after Alexandr Wang reorganized the company’s AI teams in August 2025. Both were trained on Meta’s Prometheus cluster in Ohio, support text, image, audio, and video inputs, and have a 1M-token context window. Neither model’s weights are publicly available. Wonder is available through the Meta Model API and Muse Code at $4 per million input tokens and $20 per million output tokens. Wonder Full is available only to Muse Code subscribers on the $50 and $200 monthly plans, with no API access. Our channel checks indicate that Wonder has roughly 3T total parameters, making it smaller than both Astra and Fable. We believe Meta is back among the leading frontier AI labs, and we expect it to stay there. In our view, a year ago that group consisted mainly of OpenAI and Anthropic. Google rejoined this year, followed by Meta, and a four-way contest is taking shape. The hiring spree in the summer of 2025 is paying off: backed by substantial investment in compute, the new team brought Meta back to the frontier in just over a year. Compute remains the biggest bottleneck. According to media reports, in July Meta was preparing to rent out surplus GPUs and was in talks with Anthropic; by October, its own needs had forced it to shelve the plan. Anthropic, meanwhile, secured new capacity from other suppliers and raised usage limits when it launched Opus 5.5. We expect the shortage to ease only once Vera Rubin and TPU 8t ship in volume in 2027. We also expect Meta’s 2027 capex to rise again. On open-weight models, we maintain our September view that the gap between the leading open-weight models and the top closed models will widen again to 6 to 12 months. Detailed Report