가입 후 초대 링크를 공유하면 동영상 재생 및 초대 보상을 받을 수 있습니다.

Gavin Baker
@GavinSBaker
Managing Partner & CIO, @atreidesmgmt. Husband, @l3eckyy. No investment advice, views my own.
가입 July 2011
6.6K 팔로잉 중    365.8K 팬
Don, there is a missing term in your equation. The crunch spread is not: Token Price - GPU rental price. Rather it is: (Token Price * Token Volume) - GPU rental price. More simply: Revenue per GPU - GPU rental price. Continuous throughput improvements for the same exact token mean that volume growth can more than offset token price declines for the exact same model/token i.e. Kimi K3 token throughput per GPU has recently been improving at a 37% annualized rate driven by inference engine optimizations. GPU prices are vertical because: 1) Mix is shifting from higher margin frontier tokens to lower margin open-weight tokens. $10 in Claude revenue requires $1 of inference compute. $10 of of open-weight revenue requires $3 to $7 of inference compute given competition between inference providers leads to lower margins. Open-weight tokens taking share is positive for AI infrastructure demand given lower margins at the model layer. The reverse is also true in that frontier tokens taking share is negative for AI infrastructure demand. Open-weight models have been taking share since early summer. 2) Throughput is steadily improving for each individual token type such that GPU compute becomes more valuable even as true like for like token prices decline.
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