Brent got crushed. The world’s benchmark crude plunged 5.26% and smashed straight through $80, settling at $79.36. That’s the sharpest two-day drop in weeks and it wiped out a big piece of the recent rally in one session. What’s behind the move? Traders are betting hard that the U.S. and Iran are finally closing in on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Fresh comments about progress in the talks are ripping the risk premium out of the price in real time. Supply that has been trapped in the Gulf is suddenly looking freer, so the market is repricing geopolitical risk, near-term supply, and demand all at once. Because Brent sets the tone for most of the world’s oil, a swing this size hits the price you pay at the pump, the inflation numbers that keep squeezing households, energy-company stocks, and the revenues of every oil-producing government on the planet. Markets don’t reverse this hard without a reason. - @MarioNawfal