๐ก $SNOW โ Q1 FY27 print tonight. The cleanest read on enterprise AI spend.
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Earnings: Wed May 27, AMC
๐ฐ EPS consensus: $0.32 (+33% YoY)
๐ Revenue consensus: $1.32B (+27% YoY)
๐ Options-implied move: ยฑ13.52%
๐ Avg actual move last 4 quarters: 11.85%
The setup: stock down ~22% YTD near $171. Q4 FY26 was strong โ $1.23B product revenue +30% YoY, 125% net revenue retention, RPO $9.77B +42% YoY, 740 net new customers. Management guided FY27 product revenue ~$5.66B, ahead of Street.
The asymmetric thesis: if consumption is actually accelerating with AI workloads โ not just talk, real Cortex/Snowflake Intelligence revenue โ the multiple re-rates. If consumption plateaus, the AI premium evaporates and the stock has more downside than the bear case currently assumes.
๐ Bull case:
- Product revenue beat with raised FY27 guide
- Net revenue retention holds 125%+
- Cortex / Intelligence ARR disclosed and material
๐ป Bear case:
- Consumption growth decelerates sequentially
- NRR slips below 122%
- AI workload commentary stays vague
My read: this is the highest-variance print of the day. The 13.5% implied move tells you the market has no idea.
What I'm watching: RPO growth, NRR, AI-specific revenue color.
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