this is the OP with a long thread...
@0xFaust12 really nailed a lot of great points here that battle scarred practitioners spend careers thinking about...
If I had to TLDR his articulate thread simply.... it would be something like this... "discretionary fundamental stock picking is being eaten alive by latent factor exposures, execution slippage, and systematic scale... more concentration is not the answer and the data proves it"
whicked smaht
ALTHOUGH....I think the implied conclusion of where it all leads is different than how I am thinking about it... X above... therefore Y.. "only the pod bois and massive prop firms with custom C++ optimization stacks can survive”
what we are seeing in other industries is... AI WILL democratize the quant stack.. piece by piece... we are seeing it now. If you following along my MID FREQUENCY WARZONE journey.. you are watching it play out in real time... QUANTS have their own issues to figure out, which are very hard problems in dynamic systems, more on that later
you don't need to build AWS to launch a software startup.... you won't need a $50M internal C++ quant team to execute systematic, risk bounded fundamental alpha in 2028...
the pod bois won the last decade because they owned the compute, the data pipes, and the solvers.... agentic tech & intelligence on tap like energy flips everything on its head
I REFUSE TO BELIEVE the future is a world where fundamental managers die an extinction event (come on)....of course ones that refuse to adapt will slowly bleed out like all tech revolutions (basic history)... the ones that adapt.. well, it’s a world where the entire quant, risk, and execution stack is unbundled into headless, plug and platy intelligence... where they get to focus 100% on what makes their forecasts unique and interesting vs the market...
the future is EXCITING! buckle up
1/2
Lets think about this from the ground up. You are a modal L/S HF and you want to make sure you will be around in 10 years, so you decide you need to make some serious changes. You probably have never hired anybody technical or you have less than a handful of technical people of questionable quality on staff to do this (maybe a DS/SDA + a SWE). You will have to outlay significant upfront cost to build infra + hire expensive technical talent in a market where you are much more likely to be outbid for high quality talent (and mid to low quality is arguably worse than nobody here). While prop firms have a longer time horizon to do this, you will need to convince LPs and GPs substantially invested in the fund that it is worth the firm's time and energy to undergo this transition and expense + you will have to convince your LPs that you will be able to pull this off without it seeming like a red flag and strategy drift.
Say you do all that, you hire 1-2 actual QRs, 1-2 actual SWEs, nice to haves would also be a dedicated risk quant + microstructure quant/qt instead of relying on just the manual execution trader(s) you probably have. Now you have to go about the process of building the commercially useful things without burning too much time + adding value to the desk so your LPs and GPs maintain faith in what you are doing.
You will need to build or buy a risk model and a portfolio optimizer but what's this, if you want to do optimization correctly you will need to calibrate a market impact model because you are probably overtrading and have never really thought about TCA, temporary impact, and permanent impact so you will need to procure or generate a dataset of your trades and the market's response to them only to find out that your long horizon alphas would have a better transfer coefficient if you overlaid short term execution alphas.
But then you run into a few problems: 1) doing research at the microstructure scale requires much more complex infra, larger and more expensive datasets, 2) Do do this effectively you essentially need a team dedicated to stat arb style signal research but you are just a MT/LT fundamental investor, 3) even if you were able to put a small team on optimal execution signal research + monetization you will come to the realization that you are trading against counterparties at this frequency that can outcompete you on both speed and cost fronts since they are market makers/HFT firms with rebates and colocation you are unable to afford or procure.
What this optimal path ends up looking like is exactly a prop firm and why I believe they will outcompete even the Citadels/Millenniums/Balys of the world
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