Jared Kubin(@JaredKubin):OAI ECOSYSTEM (v5) 9/26 3 things we can tease out with new info post close 1. compute and Revs almost cancel in their planning…$856B of compute/infra spend versus “$840B of cumulative revenue through 2030” …the entire neg. $278B cash burn is safely assumed “everything else” … my OPEX below is right in the ballpark / yr 2. they need to raise about $150bn in IPO proceeds or do another round before IPO to plug the hole 3. over the next five-ish yrs they SHOULD/plan to convert $1 of revenue into about $1.33 of cash outflow ($840B revenue vs ~$1.12T of implied cash costs)… said another way… they aren’t self funding until very end / back end loaded… if you invest in IPO you need to have a view here A lot to think about.

2026.09.19 00:06

OAI ECOSYSTEM (v5) 9/26 3 things we can tease out with new info post close 1. compute and Revs almost cancel in their planning…$856B of compute/infra spend versus “$840B of cumulative revenue through 2030” …the entire neg. $278B cash burn is safely assumed “everything else” … my OPEX below is right in the ballpark / yr 2. they need to raise about $150bn in IPO proceeds or do another round before IPO to plug the hole 3. over the next five-ish yrs they SHOULD/plan to convert $1 of revenue into about $1.33 of cash outflow ($840B revenue vs ~$1.12T of implied cash costs)… said another way… they aren’t self funding until very end / back end loaded… if you invest in IPO you need to have a view here A lot to think about.

Jared Kubin@JaredKubin

2026.08.13 16:10

OAI ECOSYSTEM (v4) update 8/26 People seam to be losing their minds again so I wanted to give a quick update on my graphic TLDR: The Circle is BIGGER, Not TIGHTER .. we have paid for ~23GW ... how do we pay for 100GW is the only question BULLS and BEARS have to answer UPDATES IN V4: - OAI raise closed. $122B at an $852B valuation ... IPO likely in the Fall (my guess) - SoftBank came back as a co-lead - $NVDA got smaller, not bigger. The $100B headline is now ~$30B of actual equity... the $500bn is an ecosystem partner check not an OAI check... though they will benefit - $CRWV went from rounding error to real: $0.35B of equity became $6.3B (+) $22B of compute bought - $ORCL 3x ... $100–200B range firmed into a $300B commitment - $AMD $90B for 6 GW, not $100B - there's a credit line now ~$4.7B undrawn across eleven banks - employees took $7B off the table in August, at the same $852B mark. No markdown - the IPO is real but quiet: a confidential S-1 went in during June... does ANTHROPIC go before? - the $MSFT fight is over. Exclusivity gone, AGI clause deleted, licence runs to 2032 - OAI partners now carry ~$1.2T of the build up from ~$1.0T, and the total still lands at $1.4–1.5T IF YOU ARE A BULL... it seems like there is infinite demand for TOKENS IF YOU ARE A BEAR... you point right to slide #2#

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