⚒️open sourcing my own TOKEN Framework (+) pre-lim $ANT numbers for everyone to do their own forecasting ⚒️ TOKEN FRAMEWORK (below) - consolidate all my thoughts from last 12m & tried to organize into a more coherent framework for how I am thinking about it (+) linking all my sources.. 3 important things imo 1. "Count Dollars not Tokens" 2. Pricing power is real but narrow *YOU have to have a view on Token Growth and Open Weights SHARE OF DOLLARS to have conviction ... On Vercel it went from about 5% to 23% in three months, led by pricier open models such as Kimi K3, not the cheapest ones. If that continues, we're in Bear: open-weight takes about 57% of 2030 API spend and frontier-lab spend only doubles. If it stalls, Base holds: about 24% open, about 10x for closed labs. That's a $700B difference in frontier-lab revenue by 2030 **I am sure the hive will find some errors -> good... send them and will update $ANT : 5 things you need to believe .. the CORE bet is #3# and #5# for the true believers - adjusted "RRR" waterfall for S-1 disclosures (this is run rate revenue and not ARR tbc) *"NRR adds" a black eye -> I would really focus on this with mgmt in IPO meetings ... really understanding the headwinds and tailwinds - my true est. SHARE COUNT (wow) - profitability bridge to help me understand moving pieces - Funding Traces - **BULL v BEAR** what you all want TOKEN MODEL: ANT_ARR_TOKEN_MODEL: Both of these are meant to encourage debate + for you to stress test your own assumptions and add to what I have here - needless to say nothing here is investment advice and you agree to that stipulation before opening any of the models - I will be tweaking and updating my own daily so can change without notice