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Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
@JesusFerna7026
Howard Marks Presidential Professor of Economics at @Penn and Senior Fellow at @AEI. Demographics, AI & macro. All opinions are my own.
가입 June 2024
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Yesterday, I told you Mexico’s total fertility rate is at 1.2. Today, let me remind you that Argentina’s total fertility rate is at 1.05: screenshot from the Argentine statistical agency below. Yes, 1.05. Argentina, in 2014, was at 2.3: a drop of more than 50% in a decade. And before you tell me “it’s Milei’s/the Peronists’/Leo Messi’s fault,” remember the following: of the 236 countries and territories on the planet, 219 have a clear negative trend in fertility. Of the remaining 17, I’d say the trend is negative as well in probably 16, although statistical methods have a hard time picking it up for one reason or another. The remaining one? Israel. So, if you think fertility is going down in your country because of some country-specific reason X, well, you might want to think twice.
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