CEO/CIO at @FirstWaveFund, long-biased hedge fund, looking for undervalued growth stocks w/ under-appreciated catalysts, need to see ~3x upside within 3-5 years
I got a peek last night at some additional $RDDT alt data for Q3 and ad spending budgets for Q4 which have been pretty accurate in recent quarters.
Q3 revenue growth looks like 62-63% YoY vs consensus at 49.5% YoY (which is up from 47.5% a month ago)
Q4 revenue growth (based off planned ad spending budgets) is pointing to 57-58% vs consensus at 43.5%
If we use the midpoints... it means $RDDT would beat Q3 estimates by $78M and Q4 estimates by $100M putting full year revenues at $3.56B which is +61.7% YoY on full year CY2026 revs vs CY2025 revs
$3.56B revs for CY2026 probably puts full year EPS north of $8.25 which is above 80% YoY -- could be higher depending on margins and stock buybacks during Q3 and/or Q4
This means $RDDT is trading today at less than 18x CY2026 EPS not including 10% of their market cap in cash
This also means $RDDT might be trading below 13x CY2027 EPS with 10% of their market cap in cash... assuming EPS growth next year is ~40%
NFA.
DYOR.