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Kaff 📊
@Kaffchad
Yield hunter | farming strats & real yield alpha. #Robinhood# degen mode on! My posts are NFA Telegram: @kafka0202 Channel:
가입 October 2021
1.8K 팔로잉 중    26.6K 팬
►HIP3 Deployer Economy - Where The Yield Comes From Spent a lot of time trying to understand where the yield actually comes from for a HIP-3 deployer, and I got that ppl are mixing 3 completely different things together. → staking yield on the 500k $HYPE. → actual fee income from running markets. → whatever strategic upside comes from subsidies, distribution, collateral adoption. Let’s look at the picture piece by piece. 1/ A deployer needs 500k HYPE staked = ~$40M at the current $HYPE price. It can still earn ~2.4% staking APR = ~$960k/year, or ~$80k/month, before validator commission. So the deployer is still long HYPE and still earning staking rewards. The real cost is locking up liquidity, ~7-day unstake friction, slashing/tail risk, $HYPE downside + the actual cost of operating the exchange. 2/ The incremental business created by HIP-3 mostly comes from trading fees. Very simplified, $1B taker volume can generate around $225k for the deployer at 4.5 bps. Funding isn’t extra revenue btw. But new markets can cut fees by ~90% to get liquidity going, taking deployer revenue toward ~$22.5k per $1B. Who is actually reaching scale? – @tradexyz: $87B volume over the last 30d with $3.4B OI. – @Dreamcash: $78.4M – @entropyIO: $307M / $9.6M OI – @tradeparagon: $148M / $12M OI controls ~99.5% of current HIP-3 volume, OI and fees among the tracked deployers. It’s one scaled exchange + a bunch of experiments rather than an ecosystem of equal deployers. Only economics show that HIP-3 absolutely can become a great cash-flow business once the liquidity flywheel exists. Their edge also comes from deploying when $HYPE was around $30. Meanwhile every new competitor might enter at ~2.6x the capital cost to compete with the guy who already has 99% of the flow. Even inside the returns look insanely power-lawed. One XYZ100 market was doing ~95% of the whole exchange’s volume. Does the data basically say each deployer only needs one ticker winner? Dreamcash shows what happens when you try to manufacture that with subsidies. – $23.2B cumulative volume – $850K earned from deployer share. Tether meanwhile was reportedly subsidizing trading by $200k/week = ~$10.4M annualized subsidy. So Dreamcash wasn’t really proving HIP-3 deployer yield. @felixprotocol did $3.54B lifetime volume. Once listed equivalent markets using deeper USDC liquidity, the flow basically disappeared. Being first to discover a market isn’t a moat if someone with 50x your distribution can clone the trade. Entropy is maybe the most interesting version of this. Raised ~$14Mand instead of trying to list 100 generic markets it went after weird stuff like Anthropic pre-IPO exposure. Their thesis may be that if pre-IPO markets scale to $5B–$20B–$50B monthly volume, being the place that owns the early price discovery could become a very profitable deployer business. When deployers compete to find product-market fit, the structure seems designed to make $HYPE the most obvious winner. → if more deployers win, more fees + more volume + more $HYPE demand. → if one dies, Hyperliquid already collected its share and someone else can try the market. After many deployers come and go, I think someone with 500K $HYPE can’t win without a distribution edge or a market unique enough to defend.
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