$SHMD got destroyed after earnings and the stock is down ~50% ytd. But reading between the lines, I am starting to see a genuine inflection here.
They've started behaving like a "real company". Earnings calls, meeting with institutions, clear guidance on future dilution. Quick pitch:
1. The main concerns *were* getting delisted from NASDAQ, working capital and dilution, and XJ dumping shares.
2. But we've moved from this to questioning the margins, which is progress. The main reason they cut EBITDA margin guidance from [9,12] --> 6% is due to increased demand from Chinese customers (lower GM)*.
3. Look at the order book. Backlog from โฌ27m in 2024 to โฌ50m in 2025 to โฌ107m already with 4 months to go. Revenue has followed the same trend.
4. Dilution no longer elephant in the room. Debt reduced from โฌ53m --> 23m. Chinese expansion funded via separate loans at 2.7%. "We are pretty well-financed at the moment... We do not see any financing requirements other than debt in the next 6 months."
5. Global tailwinds for WFE help too. $SHMD makes machines that help in making large wafers and substrates. Panel level packaging which is $SHMD's ๐ & ๐ง is the future. Glass substrates come later.
* - Yes, they should have communicated this better.