The Kobeissi Letter(@KobeissiLetter):Record highs are back. What comes next? The S&P 500 has risen in 13 of the last 17 instances following a significant breakout to an all-time high over the last 30 years. During these periods, the index gained an average of ~6.3% over the subsequent 6 months. The 4 exceptions came in 2000, 2007, 2018, and 2019, with the first two preceding major bear markets. Most recently, in 2025, the S&P 500 gained +12.3% in the 6 months following a similar move to an all-time high. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has posted 26 all-time highs in 2026, following 39 record closes in full-year 2025 and 57 in 2024. History suggests market momentum is set to continue.

2026.08.08 20:37

Record highs are back. What comes next? The S&P 500 has risen in 13 of the last 17 instances following a significant breakout to an all-time high over the last 30 years. During these periods, the index gained an average of ~6.3% over the subsequent 6 months. The 4 exceptions came in 2000, 2007, 2018, and 2019, with the first two preceding major bear markets. Most recently, in 2025, the S&P 500 gained +12.3% in the 6 months following a similar move to an all-time high. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has posted 26 all-time highs in 2026, following 39 record closes in full-year 2025 and 57 in 2024. History suggests market momentum is set to continue.