This morning I went discount shopping and initiated a position in $NBIS at $164 and bought more $SPCX at $141
I also sold my $AAPL at ATHs to fund these buys, so I still maintain my cash position
I realize there are risks w/ higher rates/inflation & Anthropic financials
But I continue to believe that the demand for compute is much much higher than the market realizes. I also believe that this compute remains scarce for years ahead, which means the pricing power of compute builders/owners remains strong
Regardless of the markets random ARR estimates of Anthropic or OpenAI, the secular demand to turn energy into intelligence is not stopping. Whether this comes from frontier model providers, agent harnesses, open models or elsewhere, we will use more AI tomorrow than today
And the more companies use AI, the more efficient and profitable they will become (we are seeing it in so many companies already). It will not be in a straight line but it will continue to be up and to the right... I know this for sure
This is why I am continuing to build positions in those who are capable of turning energy into intelligence
By the way, you can track all of these moves in real-time and see what else I hold in my portfolio inside Milk Road PRO here:
Nebius is the one neocloud that has a strong balance sheet and could whether a big storm. They have $8B of cash and could even acquire some of the many neoclouds who will likely fail at discounted prices
Even more so on this is SpaceX, with more than $100B in capital sitting on their balance sheet, they will imo be the biggest buyer of compute if things fall apart. Their numbers already look good at current build prices, if they were to get discount prices from distressed companies, that would be a bonus
Higher rates makes financing compute a little more difficult, it doesn't make it impossible, not even close. which means compute businesses who manage their capital well can continue to flourish during these times. I think Nebius and SpaceX will be those two companies
Maybe we go lower, maybe we don't. I dont know in the short-term, but in the long-term I think both of these companies are going much higher