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Lorenzo Valente
@LorenzoARK
Crypto at @ARKinvest I Director of Research I Disclosure:
๊ฐ€์ž… May 2024
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Q1'26 @Bullish earnings ๐Ÿงต The cleanest way to think about this quarter: The trading business materially outperformed a collapsing market. Industry top-10 spot CEX vol: -39% QoQ Bullish volumes: Spot: -14% Options: +29% to $11.6B 14% BTC OI market share Transaction revenue flat despite the volume drop: spreads widened, options mix grew. Real share gain. Profitability stepped back because management chose to lean in. Opex +20% QoQ Margin: 48% โ†’ 38% Funding the tokenization platform, TRP warrant program, and @consensus2026 events. The Q4 print was the cyclical peak โ€” this is what investing through a downcycle looks like. The Equiniti deal is the real story. $4.2B, target close Jan 2027. Buys: 3K issuer relationships 20M KYC'd shareholders A regulated transfer agent The missing piece of the tokenization stack. Combined 2026E: ~$1.3B revenue ~$500M EBITDA less capex ~$280M adj. net income
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