MTS(@MTSlive):Google DeepMind's @alexolegimas explains how millions of AI agents could transform the economy while GDP growth stays at just 4-5%. The reason: AI could make production so cheap that the economic boom barely shows up in GDP. "Let's say you have tons of autonomous organizations, millions of agents. There’s a state of the world where you’re still in the four to five growth number." "Agriculture got automated. What happens to agriculture as a part of the economy? It went from like 40% to 2%, even though there was way, way, way more agriculture." "Whatever gets automated becomes cheaper, and if those firms are producing a lot of output for not a lot of cost, the price of that output drops, and hence they might not necessarily lead to huge growth numbers." "We could see incredible flourishing, incredible amounts of cheap output that we’re all consuming and we’re all happy with, and when you look at the GDP numbers, they’re in the regular sort of ballpark." @GoogleDeepMind

2026.11.07 04:17

Google DeepMind's @alexolegimas explains how millions of AI agents could transform the economy while GDP growth stays at just 4-5%. The reason: AI could make production so cheap that the economic boom barely shows up in GDP. "Let's say you have tons of autonomous organizations, millions of agents. There’s a state of the world where you’re still in the four to five growth number." "Agriculture got automated. What happens to agriculture as a part of the economy? It went from like 40% to 2%, even though there was way, way, way more agriculture." "Whatever gets automated becomes cheaper, and if those firms are producing a lot of output for not a lot of cost, the price of that output drops, and hence they might not necessarily lead to huge growth numbers." "We could see incredible flourishing, incredible amounts of cheap output that we’re all consuming and we’re all happy with, and when you look at the GDP numbers, they’re in the regular sort of ballpark." @GoogleDeepMind

Alex Imas@alexolegimas

2026.10.29 15:04

I joined @GoogleDeepMind to develop a research program on the economics of AGI. Today, together with Andrew Koh (@andrewjkoh) and Shane Legg (@ShaneLegg), we are incredibly excited to release The Economics of Intelligence, the first in a series of projects from our group on how AGI will change the economy. How do capability improvements transform the economy, and when? In this project, we define thresholds of economic capabilities, e.g., minimal AGI, based on how they transform the economy. We then track how the economy–market structure, employment, and wages–changes during the transition across capability regimes. We have seen exponential increases in what AI agents can do but the broader economy seems almost remarkably unchanged. Part of the reason is that the solo AI agent is the wrong economic object; economic transformation is an equilibrium outcome where organizations compete. Looking at how intelligence functions within organizations, transformation will depend on when two key capability thresholds are crossed: competence (gains on individual skills, e.g., coding, math) and coordination (gains on ability of agents to cooperate and work together). We show that what economic transformation looks like depends on whether AI becomes supercompetent, supercooperative, or both—the regime of artificial superintelligence (ASI). Tracking this transition shows why the real visible transformation may come from improvements in coordination—a capability most benchmarks don’t yet track. Past a certain threshold, AI capabilities can break the Coasian ceiling on firm size and lead to an economy that looks drastically different than the one we see today. Two main takeaways: 1. To understand the path of transformation, we should be tracking agentic coordination more closely. 2. The impact of AI will likely show up in wages before market structure or employment. We are really excited about this paper. Excited to hear people’s thoughts. Link:

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