For students of market history...
1. Until late May/early June, quite a few veterans I know had never heard of "Situational Awareness". Then all at once, it seemed everyone was following the fund's positions. Soon after, the bottleneck trade peaked.
2. Every cycle, someone racked up big numbers on the way up, only to give everything back (and more). Return vs. Risk, simple as that. Manage risk, always.
3. Momentum is a specialist's game, and should never be dressed up as anything else. When Momentum gets crowded and turns down, valuation/fundamental support goes out the window. The results are always the same (July 2026 was a perfect example).
4. It doesn't mean the cycle is "over". But it does mean that massive leverage was deployed at the peak. A small group of smart people spotted the imbalance, and sidestepped the collapse. Now, after a total wipeout, good stocks are moving back into strong hands. Little by little.
5. If you want to learn more about prior cycles, search
@McClellanOsc "burning LOH" studies on his website. History is rich with examples just like this.
6. Check out what Jack and I were saying on May 19 (below)... one of many signs the rug was about to get pulled.
The race is on...
Plenty of time left this year, and a LOT of positioning is offsides across many key markets.
And I think history still has quite a few tricks up its sleeve (for those who want to study it).
Looking forward to what the rest of 2026 brings...
Onwards and upwards.