Markets remain in a period of rotation, and despite Equal-weighted SPX set to make new all-time highs on a closing basis, Technology is starting to come under pressure. It started with Software, then Mag-7, and now the first few ripples are being seen within the Semi space. Have the Semiconductors peaked? That's still doubtful and difficult to make a technically bearish case right away based on price. But i assume until/unless $MAGS starts to lift right away (Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF) it's tough to make an imminent case for SPX and QQQ to join RSP back at new highs. For now, the 3 main factors that normally drive market downdrafts are not in place; 1) Bullish sentiment (While this rose a bit post FOMC meeting, it's certainly nowhere near bullish levels 2) Breadth deterioration (In fact the opposite has happened over the last three months) Breadth has expanded, Russell 3k Advance/Decline is at the highest levels in 5 years and the percentage of Russell 3k stocks trading above their 20-day moving average has doubled since late March 3) Defensive trading picking up. This has not yet underway to the extent one can say Defensives are being favored simply based on REITS, Healthcare, and Utilities doing a bit better. While Consumer Staples have outperformed this week, we'll need to see far more to argue that markets are getting defensive. Thus, this uncertain choppy time might be with us for awhile and directly ties into the bearish seasonal period that Mid-term q3 periods are famous for. Does this mean a 20% decline is starting? That's doubtful. But yet, it's worth paying attention to this rotation. Healthcare is an OVERWEIGHT tactically and should be favored, along with REITS for those who might be too top-heavy in Technology. Airlines, Banks, Homebuilders are other areas which are working well right now. I do not think Mag-7 has bottomed despite the one-day bounce in MSFT, and so for those who are searching for groups pushing higher, they're certainly there, they're just not in Technology right now. Yes, i HAVE raised my 2026 SPX target from 7300 to 8k which was done to coincide with end of 1H and Tom's call and wasn't specifically tactically driven during a time of technology weakening. For those who ARENT getting daily reports and my 5-10 min video DAILY, you can find here : as i rarely if ever post actionable market thoughts and/or thorough market content here !! Happy Friday and Happy Summer
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