This chart explains exactly why OpenAI and Anthropic will likely end up missing their future revenue forecasts. Look at what is happening with opensource AI models. Models with open weights now account for nearly 78% of token volume on this AI gateway, compared to just 22% for closed models and that is a HUGE problem for both companies. As open models continue getting better, developers and enterprises have more reasons to move away from expensive proprietary models. They can run open models themselves, use cheaper inference providers, and avoid paying a premium for every token. That puts pressure on pricing, margins, and ultimately revenue growth. Even if AI usage continues exploding, it doesn't necessarily mean OpenAI and Anthropic will capture all that spending. But this is actually extremely bullish for the broader AI infrastructure buildout. Even if OpenAI and Anthropic capture a smaller share of AI spending, the demand for compute isn't going anywhere. If anything, cheaper and more accessible models could accelerate AI adoption, driving even more demand for GPUs, memory, networking, power, and data centers. This is why I continue to be so bullish on the companies supplying the infrastructure behind AI.