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Milk Road AI
@MilkRoadAI
Helping millions of investors navigate the AI markets. Capitalize on the biggest technological change in history across the infrastructure & app layers of AI.
가입 October 2025
420 팔로잉 중    50.1K 팬
$SPY finished basically flat today, closing at $778.01 for a 0.01% loss after dipping as low as $775.95 earlier in the session as chip stocks sold off. Here are the top stories you need to know. 1. Memory stocks got hit again on worries about China's CXMT, with $MU falling as much as 5.8% and $AMD dropping more than 3% at one point. 2. South Korea's KOSPI fell 5.5% as Samsung dropped 7.4% and SK Hynix sank 10%, pushing the index's losses over the last five trading days past 15%. 3. $AVGO CEO Hock Tan compared many AI investors to casino gamblers, but he also said chip supply should stay tight for years and pointed to OpenAI's $50 billion revenue run rate as proof of demand. 4. The IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.0%, crediting AI spending and calling it the largest investment boom in United States history. 5. Bain estimates AI infrastructure spending could reach $1.5 trillion a year by 2031, which means the industry would need about $6 trillion in annual revenue to justify it. 6. $GOOGL rolled out its new Gemini 4 Argon model globally across the Gemini app, Search and its developer platform. 7. $AMD agreed to provide credit support for the first 222 megawatt phase of Fermi's AI power campus in Texas, and $FRMI shares jumped more than 20%. 8. $CRWV bonds climbed to yields near 15% for the first time as investors grew more worried about its debt load. 9. $ASML reports earnings tomorrow, and analysts expect about €11.7 billion in revenue, up more than 50% from a year ago. 10. $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang kicked off his European tour in Paris and announced investments in four French AI startups.
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South Korea’s KOSPI just opened down another 4.5% and is now down more than 12% over the past five trading days. And I think there’s a LOT more going on here than investors simply worrying about China’s CXMT. First, you have Samsung and SK Hynix facing growing concerns about additional DRAM competition after CXMT announced progress on its new 4F² architecture, which could potentially make memory production more efficient and put pressure on future DRAM prices. But that’s only part of the story because something I think investors are overlooking is that Samsung recently completed its massive share buyback program, while SK Hynix is also winding down its repurchases. Together, these programs represented roughly $39 billion in potential buying support, and with that support fading, the market becomes much more vulnerable to foreign investor selling. And here’s another important factor. South Korean regulators have tightened restrictions on single stock leveraged ETFs, increasing minimum deposit requirements and temporarily restricting new listings. This matters because leveraged retail demand helped fuel the enormous rally in Korean equities, and making that exposure harder to access can reduce incremental buying pressure. Now, combine that with investors taking profits after a massive semiconductor rally, rising oil prices, and broader geopolitical uncertainty, and you can see why selling pressure is accelerating. And remember, memory stocks have rallied because investors are pricing in years of tight supply, strong pricing, and accelerating AI demand. When expectations are already this high, even a relatively small change in the outlook can cause a significant correction, especially when leveraged investors are forced to unwind positions. Personally, I think the biggest question is whether CXMT can actually produce enough competitive DRAM at scale to materially change global supply. Because according to HSBC’s projections, the DRAM market could remain undersupplied through 2028 even after accounting for additional Chinese production. And with HBM production competing for manufacturing capacity with conventional DRAM, I think investors are seriously underestimating how much memory we’re going to need as hyperscalers continue spending hundreds of billions of dollars building AI infrastructure. To me, this selloff looks more like a mix of weakening market liquidity, foreign capital outflows, and investors reducing risk than a fundamental deterioration in memory demand. I’m still bullish on Samsung, SK Hynix, and $MU over the long term.
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