NoLimit(@NoLimitGains):JPMorgan is forecasting global food inflation to go from 2.8% now to 5% by early 2027. The driver is fertilizer. 1/3 of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and that strait has been shut since February. Nitrogen goes into about half of all crops grown globally. And unlike oil, there’s no strategic reserve for fertilizer. Nothing to release. NOAA also has a historic El Niño at 69% probability for October to December. Those events have historically cut tropical crop output by 3.5%. US grocery prices are already up 33% since 2019. Not empty shelves. Just expensive food, and it hits the harvest after next rather than this one.

2026.08.27 11:50

JPMorgan is forecasting global food inflation to go from 2.8% now to 5% by early 2027. The driver is fertilizer. 1/3 of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and that strait has been shut since February. Nitrogen goes into about half of all crops grown globally. And unlike oil, there’s no strategic reserve for fertilizer. Nothing to release. NOAA also has a historic El Niño at 69% probability for October to December. Those events have historically cut tropical crop output by 3.5%. US grocery prices are already up 33% since 2019. Not empty shelves. Just expensive food, and it hits the harvest after next rather than this one.

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