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Petro D. | Research
@PDmytriiev
DeFi researcher · Stablecoin & protocol economics · Prediction markets · PM Founder:
가입 August 2022
823 팔로잉 중    1.4K 팬
Hyperliquid Policy Center's new report tests whether perpetual futures help or hurt the dated futures markets they reference, using CME, Binance, BitMEX, and HIP-3 oil data. The answer across every test is that perps expand hedging access without measurably degrading the incumbent, though the oil evidence rests on just 19 weekends. → Weekend perp moves pass through to the CME reopen almost exactly one-for-one: Binance 1.0019 and BitMEX 0.9989 over 205 weekends, xyz:CL 1.0729 over 19. → The perp gave a better read on the reopen than a stale Friday close in 74% of weekends. → On the March 6, 2026 weekend, WTI gapped 15.8% at the reopen. A perp hedge would have cut $1.58M of exposure on $10M down to $62k after funding and fees. → The hedge benefit holds across the full sample and across every hedge ratio and cost assumption tested, from 1bp to 25bps. → Post-launch CME reopens were no worse than WTI's own history predicts. → A cross-market check against corn and wheat, neither of which has ever traded on HIP-3, shows no consistent sign of harm and flat pre-trends. → The funding rate anchors properly during closures: elevated premia mean-revert, and the final off-hours premium matches the reopen direction in 74% of weekends and near 100% of high-premium ones. → Median off-hours fill on xyz:CL runs near $1,300, roughly two orders of magnitude below a median CME WTI trade. → Rolling dated contracts is the hidden cost: the same April 2026 roll cost roughly $950k on Monday and $110k on Friday, on $10M notional. Perps never face that decision.
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