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Patient Investor โœˆ๏ธ HOOD Summit โ€˜26
@PSInvestor
Real Estate Developer | Investor '16 | NFA Perma Bull 13x $MU 10x $APLD 8X $CIFR 5x $NVTS & more | Next $KOPN $RDW $OSS $AMPG $QS $LIDR $ACHR๐Ÿง˜โ€โ™‚๏ธ
๊ฐ€์ž… June 2025
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๐—ง๐—Ÿ๐——๐—ฅ 1. Morgan Stanley expects U.S. perps to be the headline product at $HOOD Summit, Sept 29 to 30, and has none of it in the $150 target. 2. Tokenized U.S. stocks got an SEC path on Sept 17. $HOOD current tokens carry no shareholder rights, so a roadmap is more likely than a launch. 3. Stock Token balances above $150 million and Robinhood Chain TVL above $1.5 billion, per the bank. The U.S. perps race has moved since that note. Kraken has run CFTC-regulated crypto perps for U.S. traders on Bitnomial since June 16, nine coins. Kalshi's bitcoin perp went live in May. On single-stock perps, Kalshi, Coinbase and Kraken's parent Payward all filed within days of each other around Sept 20. None is approved. $HOOD is in that race two ways. Its own CFTC conversations, and a minority stake it took on Sept 8 in CFTC-registered derivatives exchange. Six days later registered with the SEC as a national securities exchange for single-stock futures and said it is working with the SEC and CFTC on single-stock perps. @vladtenev on X, Sept 17, after the SEC exemption: "Thanks to the SEC's leadership, Americans can start to reap the benefits of tokenization: instant settlement, 24/7 trading, fractionalization by default and more. It's a good day for U.S. innovation" $HOOD is $119.40 today, about 4% under the $124.25 close in the note, with the keynote three days out.
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$HOOD Morgan Stanley's HOOD Summit preview names U.S. perpetual futures as the product most likely to be announced in Houston next week, and it is not in the bank's model. Robinhood already runs perps overseas, on chain and through Bitstamp, where the offering has grown to include commodity perps. On the Q2 call Vlad Tenev said of the CFTC, "we've been in conversations with CFTC, and they've been constructive." Morgan Stanley's point is that because the product already exists internationally, the technical work for a U.S. version is small. Tenev would not give a date and said product timelines are what events are for. The SEC's Innovation Exemption on Sept 17 opened a path for tokenized U.S.-listed stocks to trade on chain through qualifying venues, with a five-year sunset and limits on symbols and volume. Tokens have to carry the same rights as the underlying shares. Robinhood's current Stock Tokens are an international product that gives price exposure without those rights, so a U.S. version needs a different structure. With twelve days between the SEC action and the Summit, Morgan Stanley expects a roadmap update rather than a live product. The bank puts Stock Token balances above $150 million and Robinhood Chain TVL above $1.5 billion. Neither U.S. perps nor U.S. tokenized stocks are in its forecasts. Overweight, $150 target, against $124.25 at the Sept 22 close.
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