Tough to say if semis have bottomed now. With most AI infra names having green days. - From $SIVE, $AEHR, and $IQE up over 20%. - To $SNDK, $MU and $AAOI up over 10%. Regardless of today's returns, the next couple of weeks will certainly be more important for more clarity: - 22 Jul: $GOOGL Q2: first proper gauge of the ~$750B hyperscaler capex year. - 22-23 Jul: $AMD Advancing AI event: Roadmap read through for foundry loading + advanced packaging + laser type demand into 2027. - 23 Jul: $INTC Q2: 18A yields + foundry commitments are probably the main variables w/ reads on US onshoring & packaging momentum. - 23 Jul: $IBM Q2: already lost a ~25% of its MC so let's see how brutal the market is on guidance misses. - 24 Jul: 10% global tariff expires & new tariffs on dozens of countries expected. It'd be a stagflationary factor that feeds the overarching Fed hike narrative. - 27 Jul: Kimi K3 full weights released - 28-29 Jul FOMC: rate hold expected per experts + Polymarket. Important to bear in mind that rate hikes (or signals of one) would be the AI trade's first genuine regime shift. - 29-30 Jul: $META, $MSFT, $AMZN earnings: more capex datapoints. - 30 Jul: June core PCE And any day we could get a US-Iran ceasefire. There's still a 10 day proposal on the table while strikes keep happening. A proper/confirmed truce would help oil prices and helps semis. Just for a high level timeline of the "main" important events coming up soon. All have some kind of impact on semis to varying degrees. AI capex of course will be most important when the hyperscalers report earnings.