駿HaYaO
@QQ_Timmy
居住在網路的麻雀
가입 December 2016
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UBS 美光 ( $MU ) 報告
• NAND 有些噪音（近期待估略下修），但 DRAM（尤其 HBM）比先前預期更緊俏。
• 維持 買進評等，目標價 1,625 美元 不變。
HBM / DRAM
• HBM 供需實際更緊，HBM4 與 HBM4E 定價強於預期。
• 2027 年產業混合 HBM ASP 上修至 年增約 79%（先前 +61%），HBM4E 可能突破 30 美元/GB。
• MU 自身 HBM ASP 上修至 年增約 72%（先前 +61%），出貨量維持約 116.5 億 Gb。
• NVIDIA 因供應緊俏調降 VR300 規格（第一版 384GB HBM4 → 後續 512GB HBM4E），但整體 2027 年 HBM 消耗量反而從 587 億 Gb 增加至 615 億 Gb。
• HBM 相對 DDR 價格溢價重新擴大。
• DDR 仍預期至少到 2028 年第二季供不應求；C3Q 合約價（含長期協議）預估季增約 20%。
NAND
• 近期待估因定價不確定性略下修。
• C3Q 合約價季增幅度低於先前預期（產業約 +20%，MU 約 +23%）。
• 但需求仍具建設性，將 2026/2027 年產業位元成長上修至 +23%/+26%。
• 定價預計 2027 年第四季見頂。
더 보기
UBS on $MU: "now model MU HBM ASP up ~72% Y/Y (vs. +61% Y/Y prior) along with broadly unchanged MU HBM bit shipments of ~11.65B Gb for C2027. This comes despite changes to $NVDA Rubin Ultra specs, where our checks suggest a first VR300 variant is expected to use 384GB of HBM4 per GPU (8-Hi × 24Gb × 8 × 2 dies), with a subsequent version moving to 512GB of HBM4E per GPU (8-Hi × 32Gb × 8 × 2 dies) around C3Q27 - and the latter being below our previous estimate of 768GB of HBM4E per GPU."
"slightly trim estimates in the near-term due to a wider range of potential pricing outcomes for NAND through year-end and into C1H27."
"For DRAM, we believe HBM supply/demand has actually tightened with pricing for both HBM4 and HBM4E even stronger than our prior expectations."
"Overall HBM consumption for C2027 is actually increasing from 58.7B Gb to 61.5B Gb. We are also getting confirmation that memory suppliers are re-widening the HBM/DDR price premium..."
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