가입 후 초대 링크를 공유하면 동영상 재생 및 초대 보상을 받을 수 있습니다.

Rafael A. Mangual
@Rafa_Mangual
Husband | Dad x 2 | PubSafety @ManhattanInst | Contributing Editor @CityJournal | Member @CouncilonCJ | Book: | Views my own
가입 August 2015
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This idea that the government can solve crime without policing and incarceration by simply “investing” in more programs is baseless and very, deeply wrong—as is the idea that governments _*cannot*_ provide public safety _*unless*_ we address the so-called “root causes” of crime (which politicians like this falsely assert are socioeconomic in nature). First, serious violence is NOT driven by socioeconomic factors. The research on this is clear. See, e.g., this literature review from Jens Ludwig assessing the effect of transfer programs on serious violence: Second, to whatever extent violence might be driven by socioeconomic factors (it’s not), the history of New York (and that of other cities) illustrates clearly that those factors need not be addressed to control crime. In 1990, NYC experienced 2,262 murders. By 2017, that number had gotten down to 292. I can assure you (as can anyone in the DSA), that during that period, NYC did not eliminate (or even substantially reduce) poverty, income inequality, etc. The homicide rate didn’t spike during the Great Recession (when the unemployment rate doubled), and it’s gone down significantly since 2021 after spiking a year earlier despite the poverty rate going up every year since 2022. (see, e.g., The social science literature is unambiguous in its demonstration of the FACT that policing (and other forms of social control) reduces crime. Here’s a short digest: • Social Control Works- • Hiring police saves lives (especially in black neighborhoods)- • As recently as 2010, year-over-year increases in policing expenditures produced returns of 63% on each additional dollar spent- • Expanding police patrols reduced crime on adjacent city blocks by between 47-73%- • Surging officers to high-crime precincts reduces violence significantly- • Increasing police presence in an area reduces crime in both the area and on adjacent blocks: • Meta analysis showing that policing disorder, specifically, reduces overall crime- • Stepping up patrols reduces shootings- Then there are the empirically demonstrable incapacitation effects of incarceration, which reduce crime by keeping active offenders behind bars… So no, you don’t need to address root causes to control crime; and yes, we should absolutely spend more on traditional crime control measures because they work better than anything else that can be done at scale.
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Hong getting some spin room Qs from JMart about abolishing the police