I spent three days on the Shenzhen optics floor collecting what people would say on the record. The most useful thing I came away with is that the industry does not agree on where its own bottleneck is, and the second most useful is a number nobody would give. Start with the disagreement, because both halves of it come out of one mouth. On the 13 August earnings call, Coherent's chief executive said indium phosphide capacity continues to be the primary constraint, and in the same answer said the company is not constrained in assembly and test capacity right now, that it has that capacity available. Four weeks later on the show floor, the Credo and Astera Labs booths put the capacity gate for co-packaged optics in packaging and test, to be absorbed by the outsourced assembly houses. Neither side is wrong, and they are not talking about the same thing. One is a company describing its own lines. The other is about whether the industry can absorb co-packaged optics at volume. That question has not been answered because it has not been put to the assemblers. What settles it is whether the outsourced assembly and test houses announce capacity for co-packaged optics, and that is observable with a date on it. Now the number. On the 9th, Sivers said at its booth that 70mW continuous-wave lasers are the tightest link right now, that 100mW is tight too, that 200mW is not yet in volume production, and that prices have been raised. The size of the increase was not given. The same day, POET was asked directly for the output power of Blazar and answered that it is a question of system-level balance. No figure. On the 11th, POET's own closing post again said high-power. Again no figure. One thing did get said plainly. On the closing day Sivers said the substrate underneath all of it is itself in shortage. Meanwhile the capacity schedules are public and dated. Sivers put 30 million dollars into its Glasgow fab on 3 September, taking annual capacity past 100 million continuous-wave DFB lasers, in production from the fourth quarter of 2027. Coherent's ultra-high-power line for co-packaged optics is ramping in Texas and Sweden with revenue expected from the December quarter. So the spending plans are on the record and the specification is not. How many watts a line can actually ship is what moves an external light source business off the pluggable curve and onto the AI curve. Three days, three chances, and nobody said it. Nobody was evasive either, and a company is free not to publish a specification. What I can report is that it was asked for and not given, and the absence is itself the reading. The date I am watching is whichever comes first: an OSAT announcing co-packaged optics capacity, or someone publishing a wattage. $COHR $LITE $SIVE $CRDO $ALAB $AAOI, and 3711 TT with $AMKR on the assembly side.