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Schulz Duggan
@Schulz_Research
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가입 January 2026
87 팔로잉 중    3.3K 팬
$ASTS AST SpaceMobile missed Q3 revenue expectations by about 8%, while its latest deployment target puts roughly 45 BlueBirds in orbit by mid-2027. Revenue is growing, but the timetable remains the bigger issue. 1. The quarter Revenue was $42.3M versus $46M consensus, up 34% from Q2. Gateway deliveries and U.S. government milestones remain the revenue drivers. Adjusted operating expenses excluding adjusted cost of revenues rose 14% sequentially to $109.4M. Company-reported capital expenditure was $310.4M, down from $610.4M in Q2. 2. What changes the investment case The presentation lists 12 BlueBirds operating in orbit. BlueBirds 14-16 have shipped but still await a SpaceX launch date. BlueBirds 17-19 are expected to launch with Blue Origin in early Q1 2027. The roughly 45-satellite target is now mid-2027; the Q1 release targeted roughly 45 during 2026. Production is targeted at six ASIC satellites per month in December, with ASIC integration pulled forward to BlueBird 34 from BlueBird 50. Nationwide intermittent service in initial markets is expected before year-end 2026. 3. Our read Cash, equivalents and restricted cash total about $3.2B, including $434.6M restricted. Funding helps, but shipped hardware still has to become operational capacity. We see improving production capability alongside a deployment schedule that needs proving. The call needs to connect launch dates, usable coverage and paying customers. This presentation does not restate FY revenue guidance or provide GAAP EPS. Against the Q2 $150M-$200M revenue framework, Q4 would need roughly $61.4M-$111.4M. We want management to clarify that bridge.
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