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Schulz Duggan
@Schulz_Research
AI and chip news as it happens, explained simply. Research on optics and memory from Asia and US filings. Weekly industry explainers. Econ & finance background.
가입 January 2026
87 팔로잉 중    3.3K 팬
$NVDA Nine trading sessions wiped $1.12 trillion off $NVDA just days before a guided $108.0 billion Q3 print on November 17, and the requested Capitol Hill security briefing falls less than 24 hours after the earnings call on November 18. From the October 28 close of $215.38 to Tuesday's November 10 close of $168.89 (USD, Google Finance; rebounding to $177.27 in pre-market trading at 06:30 ET on November 11), shares fell 21.6% across 24.1 billion common shares outstanding. Yet Nvidia's Q3 FY27 outlook in its SEC Form 8-K already assumes zero Data Center compute revenue from China. Why is the market pricing such a steep governance and policy discount when mainland China is already zeroed out of guidance? Two numbers inside Nvidia's SEC filings explain the disconnect. Start with where Data Center revenue actually sits. In Q2 FY27 (SEC Form 8-K, period ended July 26, 2026), Nvidia generated $89.0 billion in Data Center revenue, and $40.3 billion of that (45.3%, up 138% YoY) came from AI Clouds, Industrial, and Enterprise (ACIE). Reports from The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal center on allegations that U.S. officials scrutinizing Singapore-based cloud partner Megaspeed investigated its former executive Alice Huang over suspected links to Chinese intelligence. Nvidia's board stated on November 8 that it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised, Beijing rejected the espionage claims as baseless smears, and Singapore clarified it conducted no intelligence probe into Alice Huang while police inquiries into Megaspeed remain ongoing. Even with zero confirmed security breach, Senate Banking Republican Kevin Cramer called on CEO Jensen Huang to step down late Tuesday, right as Senate Banking weighs folding the AI OVERWATCH Act, Chip Security Act, and MATCH Act into the defense bill. Stricter export licensing or end-user verification on offshore and Southeast Asian neoclouds hits that $40.3 billion ACIE growth engine directly. At the same time, Nvidia's balance-sheet commitments raise the cost of leadership uncertainty. Per the Q2 FY27 CFO Commentary on EDGAR, Nvidia expanded supply and capacity commitments from $119 billion to $279 billion (driven by memory procurement) while taking on $108.5 billion in maximum AI infrastructure lease guarantees, compressing Q3 gross-margin guidance by 100 bps sequentially to 74.0% (±50 bps). Retaining former SDNY Acting U.S. Attorney Joon H. Kim and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz on November 10 signals a serious independent board inquiry alongside a new San Jose federal shareholder suit, while today (November 11) marks the deadline set by three House committee chairs for Huang to confirm the November 18 closed-door session. Wall Street consensus sits at $108.8 billion to $109.0 billion in revenue and $2.47 in diluted EPS for next Tuesday's release (InsiderFinance), with options pricing roughly a 10.5% post-earnings move (OptionScout). We expect Q3 demand and Vera Rubin ramp metrics to clear consensus comfortably, leaving the multiple anchored to two questions on the November 17 call: how much compliance friction will Washington impose on global ACIE cloud partners, and how does the board ring-fence day-to-day execution while Wachtell's review runs?
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