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Shanghai Macro Strategist
@ShanghaiMacro
China strategist. Author of bi-weekly China Macro Watch. Mission: bridge the information gap between the East and the West. Contact: shanghaimacro@gmail.com
가입 April 2022
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After reading this, I can’t shake the feeling that we may already be living in a Three-Body world—one in which humanity is gradually, and perhaps inevitably, dividing itself into three camps: the Adventists, the Redemptionists, and the Survivors. The Adventists want the Trisolarans to come. They see the arrival of a superior intelligence not as an existential threat, but as a potential replacement for a civilization they believe has reached its limits. The Redemptionists also believe the Trisolarans can save us—but they hope that the two civilizations can coexist, with superior intelligence serving as a means of transcending the flaws of human civilization rather than replacing it. The Survivors, by contrast, ask a much more primitive question: How do we survive the Trisolarans? For them, the preservation of human agency and human civilization takes precedence over the promise of whatever the future intelligence might bring. What makes the analogy increasingly unsettling is the rapid emergence of superintelligence. Perhaps we have already begun to fall, consciously or unconsciously, into these three camps. Some are eagerly anticipating the arrival of something greater than ourselves. Some believe AI will ultimately redeem humanity from many of the constraints that have defined our civilization. And some are increasingly preoccupied with a more fundamental question: whether humans will remain the ones making the decisions in the world we are creating. The most interesting question, then, may not be whether superintelligence will transform human civilization. That increasingly seems inevitable. The deeper question is which of these three visions of the future will ultimately prevail—and what happens when the people holding them begin competing for control over the intelligence that will shape that future? Perhaps the future of AI will be determined not simply by how intelligent machines become, but by the relative dynamics and power of the Adventists, the Redemptionists, and the Survivors among us.
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I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
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